Climate Volatility: From Green Swans to Antifragility | Managing Climate Stress-tests and Financial Risk


Delving into the world of the unexpected, Kokou draws parallels between the dramatic twists and turns of Tchaikovsky's "Swan Lake" and the unpredictability of life and finance, to investigate how sudden, unforeseen events—Black Swans—impact markets and our globalized world.

Abraham Lincoln once said, “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”. So why do well-known risk managements models fail to predict major events? Is it possible to know when and where the next crisis will come from? And how can we be better prepared?

ep 32

In this episode of 2050 Investors, host Kokou Agbo-Bloua explores the theory of Black Swans, created by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and its relevance to sustainability, climate change, and financial markets.

Kokou explains how these rare events, like the 2008 financial crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic, reshape financial landscapes.

In the context of climate change, these black swans are rebranded as ‘Green Swans’, symbolizing the increasing frequency and severity of climate events such as floods, heat waves, and wildfires. Join host Kokou Agbo-Bloua as he assesses the impact of these Green Swans on our ability to manage risks and how they pose significant challenges for our economies and sustainability efforts. Kokou also emphasizes the importance of understanding the limitations of traditional risk management models and adapt in a rapidly changing world.

Lastly, he explores how the principles of antifragility, another term coined by Taleb, can help systems benefit from external stressors, making them more resilient in the face of volatility and uncertainty.